The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has come under intense scrutiny after reporting a 2.68% GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2024-25, a figure that has sparked debate among economists, policymakers, and analysts. At the center of this discussion is Dr. Naeemuz Zafar, Chief Statistician of PBS, who on Thursday publicly defended the reported growth rate, insisting that the methodology adhered to international standards and that the results were credible.
Speaking at a press conference held at P Block, Islamabad, alongside Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal, Dr. Zafar reassured critics that the GDP calculations were consistent with guidelines from the United Nations (UN) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While acknowledging certain limitations in data sources, he maintained that the reported growth rate reflects a legitimate and standardized assessment of Pakistan’s economic performance.
Defending the Methodology
Dr. Zafar admitted that some of the data used to estimate growth came from outdated sources. For example, livestock sector growth was calculated using statistics from the 2005-06 livestock census, and performance in the electricity sector was projected using budgeted figures instead of actual outcomes. Critics have argued that these practices weaken the reliability of the GDP number.
However, Dr. Zafar countered that such methods are widely accepted under international statistical norms. He added that Pakistan is in the process of updating its GDP base year from 2015-16 to 2025-26, with new surveys already underway to support a more accurate and modern economic measurement framework.
Regarding the proposal to appoint an independent committee of economists to reassess the growth rate, he remarked:
“That decision lies with the government, but we are prepared to defend our figures at any platform.”
This statement reflects PBS’s confidence in standing by its work, even amid calls for external validation.
Questions Over Agriculture and Construction Sectors
The 2.68% GDP growth figure has been especially controversial because of discrepancies in sectoral performance. The agriculture sector, often a backbone of Pakistan’s economy, saw a steep 13% decline in major crops. Despite this, PBS reported agriculture growth of 0.56%, largely attributed to positive livestock estimates. This apparent contradiction has raised red flags among economists, many of whom argue that the livestock gains do not offset the sharp losses in crop output.
Further skepticism surrounds the overall GDP trend. In the first three quarters of FY 2024-25, Pakistan’s GDP averaged just 1.7% growth. For the annual figure to reach 2.68%, the economy would have needed a sudden 5.3% growth surge in the final quarter. Economists widely question whether such an extraordinary jump occurred, especially in the absence of strong supporting data.
Another point of contention is the construction sector, which, along with electricity, contributed nearly 1 percentage point to the GDP growth figure. Without these contributions, the growth rate would fall back to 1.7%, aligning with the quarterly trend. PBS explained that the construction sector’s strong performance stemmed from higher utilization of Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) funds, though critics argue that reliance on government-funded projects provides an incomplete picture of the broader economy.
Revisions Likely by Year-End
The PBS chief clarified that the reported numbers were quarterly estimates, subject to revision once more comprehensive data becomes available. The National Accounts Committee (NAC) will reconvene in October or November 2025, at which point the growth rate for the first quarter of FY 2025-26 will be released. Revisions to the 2024-25 GDP figures may also be introduced, depending on updated surveys and sectoral data.
Such revisions are common practice in most economies, yet the controversy highlights the importance of transparency and timely updates to ensure confidence in official statistics.
Addressing Delays in Poverty and Unemployment Data
Beyond GDP figures, Dr. Zafar also tackled questions about delays in publishing poverty and unemployment statistics. He explained that PBS had been heavily engaged in the national population census and several other major assignments, which temporarily diverted resources from poverty and labour force surveys.
Nevertheless, he confirmed that both the poverty survey and the labour force survey are now in progress, with results expected to provide policymakers and the public with clearer insights into household welfare, income distribution, and job market conditions.
Broader Implications for Pakistan’s Economy
The controversy over the 2.68% GDP growth rate goes beyond technical debates—it underscores deeper concerns about economic credibility, investor confidence, and policy planning. Accurate data is not just a statistical requirement; it forms the foundation for decision-making across government, businesses, and international institutions.
When growth numbers are viewed as unreliable or politically influenced, it can erode trust among investors, weaken public confidence, and complicate negotiations with international lenders such as the IMF or World Bank. Pakistan, which continues to face challenges like inflation, low exports, and high external debt, cannot afford uncertainty around its economic indicators.
Frequently Asked Questions:
What GDP growth rate did PBS report for FY 2024-25?
PBS reported a GDP growth rate of 2.68% for the fiscal year 2024-25, sparking debate among economists and policymakers.
Why is the 2.68% GDP growth figure controversial?
The figure is disputed because it relies on outdated data for the livestock sector and budgeted figures for electricity, while agriculture and construction numbers appear inconsistent with actual performance trends.
How does PBS defend its methodology?
PBS states that its methodology follows international standards set by the UN and IMF, and emphasizes that such practices are accepted worldwide until new base-year surveys are completed.
What role did the agriculture sector play in the GDP controversy?
Major crops saw a 13% decline, yet agriculture was reported to grow by 0.56%, largely due to livestock estimates, creating skepticism about the accuracy of the sector’s performance.
When will the GDP figures be revised?
The National Accounts Committee (NAC) is scheduled to meet in October or November 2025, when updated data and possible revisions to the 2024-25 GDP growth rate will be announced.
Why are construction and electricity sectors highlighted in the debate?
Together, these two sectors contributed almost 1 percentage point to the GDP growth. Without them, overall growth would fall to 1.7%, closer to the trend in earlier quarters.
Is PBS working on improving its statistical system?
Yes. PBS is updating its GDP base year from 2015-16 to 2025-26, with new surveys in progress to ensure more accurate and modern economic measurements.
Conclusion
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics’ defense of the 2.68% GDP growth rate has ignited a crucial debate over the credibility of economic data in the country. While PBS insists its methodology aligns with global statistical standards, concerns about outdated datasets, sectoral inconsistencies, and unusually high final-quarter growth estimates continue to fuel skepticism. The coming months will be decisive, as the National Accounts Committee prepares to release updated numbers and potential revisions. For Pakistan, the issue extends beyond statistics—it is about restoring investor confidence, strengthening policymaking, and ensuring transparency in economic reporting. Reliable data is the backbone of sound economic planning, and without it, growth figures risk being seen as hollow.
